Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes. CONCLUSION: Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.

Stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in the Middle East and Northern Africa: A population-based cancer registry study.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 2nd most common cancer and 3rd most common cause of death in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. We aimed to explore CRC stage at diagnosis data from population-based cancer registries in MENA countries. In 2021, we launched a Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR) survey on staging practices and breast and CRC stage distributions in MENA. According to the survey results, population-based data on TNM stage for CRC were available from six registries in five countries (Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Türkiye, UAE). The proportion of cases with unknown TNM stage ranged from 14% in Oman to 47% in Casablanca, Morocco. The distribution of CRC cases with known stage showed TNM stage IV proportions of 26-45%, while the proportions of stage I cancers were lowest in Morocco (≤7%), and highest (19%) in Izmir, Türkiye. Summary extent of disease data was available from six additional registries and four additional countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar). In summary, the proportions of CRC diagnosed with distant metastases in Oman, Bahrain and UAE were lower than other MENA countries in our study, but higher than in European and the US populations. Harmonising the use of staging systems and focusing stage data collection efforts on major cancers, such as CRC, is needed to monitor and evaluate progress in CRC control in the region.

Global Stage Distribution of Breast Cancer at Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Stage at diagnosis is a key prognostic factor for cancer survival. Objective: To assess the global distribution of breast cancer stage by country, age group, calendar period, and socioeconomic status using population-based data. Data Sources: A systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and registry websites and gray literature was conducted for articles or reports published between January 1, 2000, and June 20, 2022. Study Selection: Reports on stage at diagnosis for individuals with primary breast cancer (C50) from a population-based cancer registry were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Study characteristics and results of eligible studies were independently extracted by 2 pairs of reviewers (J.D.B.F., A.D.A., A.M., R.S., and F.G.). Stage-specific proportions were extracted and cancer registry data quality and risk of bias were assessed. National pooled estimates were calculated for subnational or annual data sets using a hierarchical rule of the most relevant and high-quality data to avoid duplicates. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of women with breast cancer by (TNM Classification of Malignant Tumors or the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program [SEER]) stage group. Results: Data were available for 2.4 million women with breast cancer from 81 countries. Globally, the proportion of cases with distant metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis was high in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from 5.6% to 30.6% and low in North America ranging from 0.0% to 6.0%. The proportion of patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease decreased over the past 2 decades from around 3.8% to 35.8% (early 2000s) to 3.2% to 11.6% (2015 onwards), yet stabilization or slight increases were also observed. Older age and lower socioeconomic status had the largest proportion of cases diagnosed with distant metastatic stage ranging from 2.0% to 15.7% among the younger to 4.1% to 33.9% among the oldest age group, and from 1.7% to 8.3% in the least disadvantaged groups to 2.8% to 11.4% in the most disadvantaged groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Effective policy and interventions have resulted in decreased proportions of women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis in high-income countries, yet inequality persists, which needs to be addressed through increased awareness of breast cancer symptoms and early detection. Improving global coverage and quality of population-based cancer registries, including the collection of standardized stage data, is key to monitoring progress.

Diagnostic accuracy of HPV16 early antigen serology for HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer is independent of age and sex.

A growing proportion of head and neck cancer (HNC), especially oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). There are several markers for HPV-driven HNC, one being HPV early antigen serology. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of HPV serology and its performance across patient characteristics. Data from the VOYAGER consortium was used, which comprises five studies on HNC from North America and Europe. Diagnostic accuracy, that is, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa and correctly classified proportions of HPV16 E6 serology, was assessed for OPC and other HNC using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (p16), HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) and HPV PCR as reference methods. Stratified analyses were performed for variables including age, sex, smoking and alcohol use, to test the robustness of diagnostic accuracy. A risk-factor analysis based on serology was conducted, comparing HPV-driven to non-HPV-driven OPC. Overall, HPV serology had a sensitivity of 86.8% (95% CI 85.1-88.3) and specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 88.6-93.4) for HPV-driven OPC using p16 as a reference method. In stratified analyses, diagnostic accuracy remained consistent across sex and different age groups. Sensitivity was lower for heavy smokers (77.7%), OPC without lymph node involvement (74.4%) and the ARCAGE study (66.7%), while specificity decreased for cases with <10 pack-years (72.1%). The risk-factor model included study, year of diagnosis, age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, pack-years, TNM-T and TNM-N stage. HPV serology is a robust biomarker for HPV-driven OPC, and its diagnostic accuracy is independent of age and sex. Future research is suggested on the influence of smoking on HPV antibody levels.

Completeness of regional cancer registry data in Northwest Russia 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: A national framework for population-based cancer registration was established in Russia in the late 1990s. Data comparability and validity analyses found substantial differences across ten population-based cancer registries (PBCRs)in Northwest Russia, and only four out of ten met international standards. This study aimed to assess the completeness of the PBCR data of those registries. METHODS: Qualitative and quantitative methods recommended for completeness and timeliness assessment were applied to the data from ten Russian regional PBCRs in Northwest Russia, covering a population of 13 million. We used historic data methods (using several European PBCRs reference rates), mortality-to-incidence ratios (M:I) comparison, and death certificate methods to calculate the proportion of unregistered cases (Lincoln-Petersen estimator and Ajiki formula). RESULTS: Incidence rate trends of different cancer types were stable over time (except one region - Leningrad oblast). A slight drop in incidence rates in older age groups for several sites in the Northwestern regions was observed compared to the reference from European countries. Comparing M:I ratios against five-year survival revealed systematic differences in Leningrad oblast and Vologda oblast. Assessment of completeness revealed low or unrealistic estimates in Leningrad oblast and completeness below 90% in St. Petersburg. In other regions, the completeness was above 90%. The national annual report between 2008-2017 did not include about 10% of the cases collected later in the registry database of St. Petersburg. This difference was below 3% for Arkhangelsk oblast, Murmansk oblast, Novgorod oblast, Vologda oblast and the Republic of Karelia. CONCLUSIONS: Eight out of ten regional PBCRs in Northwest Russia collected data with an acceptable degree of completeness. Mostly populated St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast did not reach such completeness. PBCR data from several regions in Northwest Russia are suitable for epidemiological research and monitoring cancer control activities.

Breast and cervical cancer screening practices in nine countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) countries have higher cervical and breast cancer mortality rates and later stage at diagnosis compared with the rest of WHO European Region. The aim was to explore current early detection practices including "dispensarization" for breast and cervix cancer in the region. METHODS: A questionnaire survey on early detection practices for breast and cervix cancer was sent to collaborators in 11 countries, differentiating services in the primary health setting, and population-based programs. Responses were received from Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation (Arkhangelsk, Samara and Tomsk regions), Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. RESULTS: All countries but Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and the Russian Federation had opportunistic screening by clinical breast exam within "dispensarization" program. Mammography screening programs, commonly starting from age 40, were introduced or piloted in eight of nine countries, organized at national oncology or screening centres in Armenia, Belarus and Georgia, and within primary care in others. Six countries had "dispensarization" program for cervix cancer, mostly starting from the age 18, with smears stained either by Romanowsky-Giemsa alone (Belarus, Tajikistan and Ukraine), or alternating with Papanicolaou (Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation). In parallel, screening programs using Papanicolaou or HPV test were introduced in seven countries and organized within primary care. CONCLUSION: Our study documents that parallel screening systems for both breast and cervix cancers, as well as departures from evidence-based practices are widespread across the EECA. Within the framework of the WHO Initiatives, existing opportunistic screening should be replaced by population-based programs that include quality assurance and control.

Epidemiology of Bladder Cancer in 2023: A Systematic Review of Risk Factors.

CONTEXT: Bladder cancer (BC) is common worldwide and poses a significant public health challenge. External risk factors and the wider exposome (totality of exposure from external and internal factors) contribute significantly to the development of BC. Therefore, establishing a clear understanding of these risk factors is the key to prevention. OBJECTIVE: To perform an up-to-date systematic review of BC's epidemiology and external risk factors. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Two reviewers (I.J. and S.O.) performed a systematic review using PubMed and Embase in January 2022 and updated it in September 2022. The search was restricted to 4 yr since our previous review in 2018. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Our search identified 5177 articles and a total of 349 full-text manuscripts. GLOBOCAN data from 2020 revealed an incidence of 573 000 new BC cases and 213 000 deaths worldwide in 2020. The 5-yr prevalence worldwide in 2020 was 1 721 000. Tobacco smoking and occupational exposures (aromatic amines and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) are the most substantial risk factors. In addition, correlative evidence exists for several risk factors, including specific dietary factors, imbalanced microbiome, gene-environment risk factor interactions, diesel exhaust emission exposure, and pelvic radiotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: We present a contemporary overview of the epidemiology of BC and the current evidence for BC risk factors. Smoking and specific occupational exposures are the most established risk factors. There is emerging evidence for specific dietary factors, imbalanced microbiome, gene-external risk factor interactions, diesel exhaust emission exposure, and pelvic radiotherapy. Further high-quality evidence is required to confirm initial findings and further understand cancer prevention. PATIENT SUMMARY: Bladder cancer is common, and the most substantial risk factors are smoking and workplace exposure to suspected carcinogens. On-going research to identify avoidable risk factors could reduce the number of people who get bladder cancer.

A risk prediction model for head and neck cancers incorporating lifestyle factors, HPV serology and genetic markers.

Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.

Cancer survival in Africa, central and south America, and Asia (SURVCAN-3): a population-based benchmarking study in 32 countries.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival is a key measurement of cancer control performance linked to diagnosis and treatment, but benchmarking studies that include lower-income settings and that link results to health systems and human development are scarce. SURVCAN-3 is an international collaboration of population-based cancer registries that aims to benchmark timely and comparable cancer survival estimates in Africa, central and south America, and Asia. METHODS: In SURVCAN-3, population-based cancer registries from Africa, central and south America, and Asia were invited to contribute data. Quality control and data checks were carried out in collaboration with population-based cancer registries and, where applicable, active follow-up was performed at the registry. Patient-level data (sex, age at diagnosis, date of diagnosis, morphology and topography, stage, vital status, and date of death or last contact) were included, comprising patients diagnosed between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012, and followed up for at least 2 years (until Dec 31, 2014). Age-standardised net survival (survival where cancer was the only possible cause of death), with 95% CIs, at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years after diagnosis were calculated using Pohar-Perme estimators for 15 major cancers. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year net survival estimates were stratified by countries within continents (Africa, central and south America, and Asia), and countries according to the four-tier Human Development Index (HDI; low, medium, high, and very high). FINDINGS: 1 400 435 cancer cases from 68 population-based cancer registries in 32 countries were included. Net survival varied substantially between countries and world regions, with estimates steadily rising with increasing levels of the HDI. Across the included cancer types, countries within the lowest HDI category (eg, CÔte d'Ivoire) had a maximum 3-year net survival of 54·6% (95% CI 33·3-71·6; prostate cancer), whereas those within the highest HDI categories (eg, Israel) had a maximum survival of 96·8% (96·1-97·3; prostate cancer). Three distinct groups with varying outcomes by country and HDI dependant on cancer type were identified: cancers with low median 3-year net survival (<30%) and small differences by HDI category (eg, lung and stomach), cancers with intermediate median 3-year net survival (30-79%) and moderate difference by HDI (eg, cervix and colorectum), and cancers with high median 3-year net survival (≥80%) and large difference by HDI (eg, breast and prostate). INTERPRETATION: Disparities in cancer survival across countries were linked to a country's developmental position, and the availability and efficiency of health services. These data can inform policy makers on priorities in cancer control to reduce apparent inequality in cancer outcome. FUNDING: Tata Memorial Hospital, the Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Plasma miR-151-3p as a Candidate Diagnostic Biomarker for Head and Neck Cancer: A Cross-sectional Study within the INHANCE Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Identification of screening tests for the detection of head and neck cancer (HNC) at an early stage is an important strategy to improving prognosis. Our objective was to identify plasma circulating miRNAs for the diagnosis of HNC (oral and laryngeal subsites), within a multicenter International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. METHODS: A high-throughput screening phase with 754 miRNAs was performed in plasma samples of 88 cases and 88 controls, followed by a validation phase of the differentially expressed miRNAs, identified in the screening, in samples of 396 cases and 396 controls. Comparison of the fold changes (FC) was carried out using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the Dunn multiple comparison test. RESULTS: We identified miR-151-3p (FC = 1.73, P = 0.007) as differentially expressed miRNAs in the screening and validation phase. The miR-151-3p was the only overexpressed miRNA in validation sample of patients with HNC with early stage at diagnosis (FC = 1.81, P = 0.008) and it was confirmed upregulated both in smoker early-stage cases (FC = 3.52, P = 0.024) and in nonsmoker early-stage cases (FC = 1.60, P = 0.025) compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: We identified miR-151-3p as an early marker of HNC. This miRNA was the only upregulated in patients at early stages of the disease, independently of the smoking status. IMPACT: The prognosis for HNC is still poor. The discovery of a new diagnostic biomarker could lead to an earlier tumor discovery and therefore to an improvement in patient prognosis.

Staging practices and breast cancer stage among population-based registries in the MENA region.

BACKGROUND: Availability of stage information by population-based cancer registries (PBCR) remains scarce for diverse reasons. Nevertheless, stage is critical cancer control information particularly for cancers amenable to early detection. In the framework of the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR), we present the status of stage data collection and dissemination among registries in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region as well as the stage distribution of breast cancer patients. METHODS: A web-based survey exploring staging practices and breast cancer stage was developed and sent to 30 PBCR in 18 countries of the MENA region. RESULTS: Among 23 respondent PBCR, 21 collected stage data, the majority (80%) for all cancers. Fourteen registries used a single classification (9 TNM and 5 SEER), 7 used both staging systems in parallel. Out of 12,888 breast cancer patients (seven registries) 27.7% had unknown TNM stage (11.1% in Oman, 46% in Annaba). When considering only cases with known stage, 65.3% were early cancers (TNM I+II), ranging from 57.9% in Oman to 83.3% in Batna (Algeria), and 9.9% were stage IV cancers. Among the nine registries providing SEER Summary stage for breast cancer cases, stage was unknown in 19% of the cases, (0 in Bahrain, 39% in Kuwait). Stage data were largely absent from the published registry reports. CONCLUSION: Despite wide stage data collection by cancer registries, missing information and low dissemination clearly limit informing efforts on early detection. The use of two classification systems in parallel implies additional workload and might undermine completeness. The favourable results of early cancer (TNM I+II) in two thirds of breast cancer patients needs to be interpreted with caution and followed up in time. Although efforts to improve quality of stage data are needed, our findings are particularly relevant to the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative.

Global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2020.

We evaluated the global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in 2020 using the estimates of NHL incidence and mortality in 185 countries that are part of the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). As well as new cases and deaths of NHL, corresponding age-standardized (world) rates (ASR) of incidence and mortality per 100 000 person-years were derived by country and world region. In 2020, an estimated 544 000 new cases of NHL were diagnosed worldwide, and approximately 260 000 people died from the disease. Eastern Asia accounted for a quarter (24.9%) of all cases, followed by Northern America (15.1%) and South-Central Asia (9.7%). Incidence rates were higher in men than in women, with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand, Northern America, Northern Europe and Western Europe (>10/100 000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (>3/100 000) were found in regions in Africa, Western Asia and Oceania. The large variations and the disproportionately higher mortality in low- and middle-income countries can be related to the underlying prevalence and distribution of risk factors, and to the level of access to diagnostic and treatment facilities.

Progress in reducing premature mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease in the former Soviet Union, 2000-19.

BACKGROUND: A reduction in non-communicable diseases premature mortality by one-third by 2030 is one of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG3.4). We examined the mortality profiles in the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (NIS) and the European Union (EU) and assessed progress in reductions of premature mortality from cancer, as compared to cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: We used WHO's Global Health Estimates and GLOBOCAN 2020 to examine current mortality profiles and computed the unconditional probabilities of dying at ages 30-70 from CVD and cancer for the years 2000-19 in both sexes, using a linear extrapolation of this trend to predict whether the target of a one-third reduction, as set in 2015, would be met in 2030. RESULTS: CVD was the main cause of premature death in the NIS (43%), followed by cancer (23%), inversely from the EU with 42% cancer and 24% CVD deaths. The NIS achieved major reductions in premature CVD mortality, although the probabilities of death in 2019 remained about five times higher in the NIS compared to the EU. For cancer, mortality reductions in most NIS were quite modest, other than large declines seen in Kazakhstan (44%) and Kyrgyzstan (30%), with both on course to meet the 2030 target. CONCLUSIONS: Limited progress in cancer control in the NIS calls for policy action both in terms of structural changes towards universal health coverage, and scaling up of national cancer control plans, including a shift from opportunistic to evidence-based early detection practices.

Vet-ICD-O-Canine-1, a System for Coding Canine Neoplasms Based on the Human ICD-O-3.2.

Cancer registries are fundamental tools for collecting epidemiological cancer data and developing cancer prevention and control strategies. While cancer registration is common in the human medical field, many attempts to develop animal cancer registries have been launched over time, but most have been discontinued. A pivotal aspect of cancer registration is the availability of cancer coding systems, as provided by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O). Within the Global Initiative for Veterinary Cancer Surveillance (GIVCS), established to foster and coordinate animal cancer registration worldwide, a group of veterinary pathologists and epidemiologists developed a comparative coding system for canine neoplasms. Vet-ICD-O-canine-1 is compatible with the human ICD-O-3.2 and is consistent with the currently recognized classification schemes for canine tumors. It comprises 335 topography codes and 534 morphology codes. The same code as in ICD-O-3.2 was used for the majority of canine tumors showing a high level of similarity to their human counterparts (n = 408). De novo codes (n = 152) were created for specific canine tumor entities (n = 126) and topographic sites (n = 26). The Vet-ICD-O-canine-1 coding system represents a user-friendly, easily accessible, and comprehensive resource for developing a canine cancer registration system that will enable studies within the One Health space.

Global patterns in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in 2020.

With 74 500 new cases worldwide in 2020, testicular cancer ranks as the 20th leading cancer type, but is the most common cancer in young men of European ancestry. While testicular cancer incidence has been rising in many populations, mortality trends, at least those in high-income settings, have been in decline since the 1970s following the introduction of platinum-based chemotherapy. To examine current incidence and mortality patterns, we extracted the new cases of, and deaths from cancers of the testis from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. In 2020, testicular cancer was the most common cancer in men aged 15 to 44 in 62 countries worldwide. Incidence rates were highest in West-, North- and South-Europe and Oceania (age-standardised rate, ASR ≥7/100 000), followed by North America (5.6/100 000 and lowest (<2/100 000) in Asia and Africa. The mortality rates were highest in Central and South America (0.84 and 0.54 per 100 000, respectively), followed by Eastern and Southern Europe, and Western and Southern Africa. The lowest mortality rates were in Northern Europe, Northern Africa and Eastern Asia (0.16, 0.14, 0.9 per 100 000, respectively). At the country level, incidence rates varied over 100-fold, from 10/100 000 in Norway, Slovenia, Denmark and Germany to ≤0.10/100 000 in Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho. Mortality rates were highest in Fiji, Argentina and Mexico. Our results indicate a higher mortality burden in countries undergoing economic transitions and reinforce the need for more equitable access to testicular cancer diagnosis and treatment globally.

Environmental factors in declining human fertility.

A severe decline in child births has occurred over the past half century, which will lead to considerable population declines, particularly in industrialized regions. A crucial question is whether this decline can be explained by economic and behavioural factors alone, as suggested by demographic reports, or to what degree biological factors are also involved. Here, we discuss data suggesting that human reproductive health is deteriorating in industrialized regions. Widespread infertility and the need for assisted reproduction due to poor semen quality and/or oocyte failure are now major health issues. Other indicators of declining reproductive health include a worldwide increasing incidence in testicular cancer among young men and alterations in twinning frequency. There is also evidence of a parallel decline in rates of legal abortions, revealing a deterioration in total conception rates. Subtle alterations in fertility rates were already visible around 1900, and most industrialized regions now have rates below levels required to sustain their populations. We hypothesize that these reproductive health problems are partially linked to increasing human exposures to chemicals originating directly or indirectly from fossil fuels. If the current infertility epidemic is indeed linked to such exposures, decisive regulatory action underpinned by unconventional, interdisciplinary research collaborations will be needed to reverse the trends.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-based cancer registry.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to national health systems and impacted health outcomes worldwide. However, the extent to which surveillance systems, such as population-based cancer registration, have been affected was not reported. Here we sought to evaluate the effect of the pandemic on registry operations across different areas and development levels worldwide. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on three main areas of cancer registry operations: staffing, financing and data collection. An online survey was administered to 750 member registries of the International Association for Cancer Registries. Among 212 responding registries from 90 countries, 65.6% reported a disruption in operations, ranging between 45% in south-eastern Asia and 87% in the Latin America and Caribbean. Active data collection was disrupted more than case notifications or hybrid methods. In countries categorized with low Human Development Index (HDI), a greater number of registries reported a negative impact (81.3%) than in very high HDI countries (57.8%). This contrast was highest in term of impact on financing: 9/16 (56%) registries in low HDI countries reported a current or an expected decline in funding, compared to 7/108 (7%) in very high HDI countries. With many cancer registries worldwide reporting disruption to their operations during the early COVID-19 pandemic, urgent actions are needed to ensure their continuity. Governmental commitment to support future registry operations as an asset to disease control, alongside a move toward electronic reporting systems will help to ensure the sustainability of cancer surveillance worldwide.

Germline determinants of humoral immune response to HPV-16 protect against oropharyngeal cancer.

Although several oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) susceptibility loci have been identified, most previous studies lacked detailed information on human papillomavirus (HPV) status. We conduct a genome-wide analysis by HPV16 serology status in 4,002 oral cancer cases (OPC and oral cavity cancer (OCC)) and 5,256 controls. We detect four susceptibility loci pointing to a distinct genetic predisposition by HPV status. Our most notable finding in the HLA region, that is now confirmed to be specific of HPV(+)OPC risk, reveal two independent loci with strong protective effects, one refining the previously reported HLA class II haplotype association. Antibody levels against HPV16 viral proteins strongly implicate the protective HLA variants as major determinants of humoral response against L1 capsid protein or E6 oncoprotein suggesting a natural immune response against HPV(+)OPC promoted by HLA variants. This indicates that therapeutic vaccines that target E6 and attenuate viral response after established HPV infections might protect against HPV(+)OPC.

Comparability and validity of cancer registry data in the northwest of Russia.

BACKGROUND: Despite the elaborate history of statistical reporting in the USSR, Russia established modern population-based cancer registries (PBCR) only in the 1990s. The quality of PBCRs data has not been thoroughly analyzed. This study aims at assessing the comparability and validity of cancer statistics in regions of the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) of Russia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from ten Russian regional PBCRs covering ∼13 million (∼5 million in St. Petersburg) were processed in line with IARC/IACR and ENCR recommendations. We extracted and analyzed all registered cases but focused on cases diagnosed between 2008 and 2017. For comparability and validity assessment, we applied established qualitative and quantitative methods. RESULTS: Data collection in NWFD is in line with international standards. Distributions of diagnosis dates revealed higher variation in several regions, but overall, distributions are relatively uniform. The proportion of multiple primaries between 2008 and 2017 ranged from 6.7% in Vologda Oblast to 12.4% in Saint-Petersburg. We observed substantial regional heterogeneity for most indicators of validity. In 2013-2017, proportions of morphologically verified cases ranged between 61.7 and 89%. Death certificates only (DCO) cases proportion was in the range of 1-14% for all regions, except for Saint-Petersburg (up to 23%). The proportion of cases with a primary site unknown was between 1 and 3%. Certain cancer types (e.g., pancreas, liver, hematological malignancies, and CNS tumors) and cancers in older age groups showed lower validity. CONCLUSION: While the overall level of comparability and validity of PBCRs data of four out of ten regions of NWFD of Russia meets the international standards, differences between the regions are substantial. The local instructions for cancer registration need to be updated and implemented. The data validity assessment also reflects pitfalls in the quality of diagnosis of certain cancer types and patient groups.